Attempts to launch a new negotiation process for the Russia-Ukraine settlement took on a new meaning on May 16. The day before, the negotiations had been in doubt due to the late arrival of the Ukrainian delegation. Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, reviewed the delegation's composition to ensure a lower level of equivalence to Russia. However, the meeting took place, forming expectations not of peace but, for now, only of a new meeting, an exchange of prisoners.

Trench in the negotiations

Vladimir Putin did not personally participate in the negotiations, although he proposed to resume the interrupted talks in Istanbul in 2022. The appointment of his assistant, Vladimir Medinsky, as head of the Russian delegation was a deliberate gesture, on the one hand, to emphasize the willingness to continue the previously standard negotiation process, but on the other hand, to justify his absence and weaken the importance of the negotiations. The fact that Russia refused to start talks in Istanbul under a ceasefire outlined Moscow's stubborn desire to turn Istanbul into a platform for extracting unilateral concessions from Ukraine.

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov headed the Ukrainian delegation. Of course, his delegation also included foreign, security, and intelligence agency representatives. However, the choice of the head of the delegation, especially against the background of the Russian delegation, Medinsky, highlights the primary goal of Ukraine in Istanbul: to achieve a ceasefire without engaging in a discussion of the comprehensive political components of the settlement. This approach makes the Ukrainian delegation somewhat vulnerable. As a supposed military man, Umerov's rigid, straightforward thinking will unlikely provide the diplomatic flexibility and maneuverability necessary in such a complex process.

Of course, expectations for serious results from the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations were not high from the beginning. However, Washington, which was trying to assume the role of the ostensibly "sponsor" of the talks, crushed all the opportunities to bring Russia into balance with its behavior.

Trump speaks, and Moscow wins.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, abandoning his visit to Saudi Arabia, where he accompanied President Trump, came to Istanbul specifically to strengthen the foundations of the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations and to possibly participate. However, in Turkey, before the talks even began, he expressed doubts that the fact of the Russian delegation's appearance in such a low, practically expert status did not inspire any optimism, and it was unlikely that any significant results would be achieved without the direct involvement of Presidents Trump and Putin. At the same time, former US President Donald Trump announced from Riyadh that "nothing will happen until he and Putin meet," and he understood why Putin refused to go to Istanbul.

This was not just a manifestation of political narcissism, as it seems at first glance. With such comments, Trump and his administration destroyed the possibility of any rational outcome of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul, making it clear that the real key lies not in the Moscow-Kyiv but in the Moscow-Washington plane. Trump legitimized Putin's refusal to negotiate and Russia's pretensions to make exaggerated demands on Ukraine. But on the other hand, he made it clear to Kyiv that if they sincerely want to stop the war and come to an understanding with the Russians, they must first come to an understanding with them, the Americans, and satisfy their "whims" so that Trump would want to bring Putin down from the sky on real ground, which is only within the power of Washington.

Europe on the margins of Istanbul

Trump's positioning also undermined the recent efforts of France, Germany, Great Britain, and Poland to pressure Putin into real, rather than sham, negotiations. Washington made it clear to the EU that it has no great desire to pressure Moscow and that the way out of the war is not to increase economic sanctions but to reach agreements with Putin.

Washington strengthened Russia's position in the Istanbul negotiations and possible further consultations with it. This means encouraging Russia's strategy of stalling negotiations, increasing demands on Ukraine, and deepening the distrust gap between the US and Europe against the backdrop of the slow progress of its troops in Ukraine, which is deprived of serious Western military support.

Who is the conductor of the negotiations

As a result, Kyiv has once again found itself in a Russian-American trap. It could not refuse negotiations, as this would be considered destructive and would give Washington grounds to blame Ukraine for the failure of the peace process while shortening the language of its main European allies with Washington in dialogue. Engagement in negotiations leads to Russia and the US equally devaluing it, increasing its pressure for concessions. And there is no third alternative since Russia rejects any hint of involvement of the main EU actors in Russian-Ukrainian negotiations. Europe cannot provide strategic defense and practical security guarantees to Ukraine. This is not only a prelude to capitulation for Ukraine but also a legitimization of Trump's weakness towards Russia. The latter's lips record a new truth: Moscow is the "conductor of the orchestra."

However, these negotiations may reveal a new winner: Turkey. The talks began in Istanbul because Vladimir Putin announced a few days ago that Turkey is the most suitable platform for this, based on the experience of 2022. Ankara immediately seized the moment. While Erdogan was receiving Zelensky in Ankara, for whom Erdogan has become a benchmark of reliability, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan took charge of the negotiations in Istanbul. On May 16, in Istanbul, at the Dolmabahçe Palace on the European shore of the Bosphorus, he was the central figure in the negotiation process. Turkey is not just a negotiating platform; it is doing everything to become a mediator alongside the United States and its allies, feeding on the trust in it equally from Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington.

In turn, Trump significantly increased Turkey and Erdogan's international weight. In Saudi Arabia, he announced that at Erdogan's request, he had decided to lift the most serious economic sanctions imposed on Syria, which had been in place since the Assad regime. Thus, Trump recognized Turkey's political patronage over Syria, which is the same as Ankara's ambition to make Syria its "satrapy" and granted Ankara a new, more commanding status in the entire Middle East region, in defiance of Israel. Now, Erdogan is capitalizing on his new political status with the Istanbul talks. This Turkish transformation process into a regional superpower is a challenge that Armenia cannot ignore in its foreign policy recalculations. But this is a separate topic.

Will the Istanbul dinner with Ukrainian "borscht" continue?

After a long break, the Russian-Ukrainian meeting held in Istanbul on May 16 ended without an official handshake, without apparent results, but rich in shadowy rearrangements. The Russian side announced that the parties should present their proposals for a ceasefire. This may be a small step, a prelude to peace imposed from a position of force. However, Ukrainian interests and enormous human and territorial losses are at the Istanbul dinner table.

Gor Abrahamyan