Radar Armenia spoke with international affairs expert Shahan Gandaharian about the Iran-Israel conflict and the US's involvement in it.
- The US intervened in the Israel-Iran conflict by striking Iran. Why did it take that step, and how does it benefit the US? Was this expected, considering that US-Iran negotiations are underway?
- American steps are unpredictable to a certain extent. Declaratively, President Trump makes contradictory statements one after another: in 2 weeks, the US will decide what to do, then immediately engages in military operations, announces that all of Iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed, then says that there are still nuclear sites and other such self-contradictions. After all this, the parties will negotiate again, but with stricter rules. I think military action will contribute to the effectiveness of the negotiations from a more global perspective.
- Will these military operations expand further after what happened, and if so, what developments can we predict?
- It is not excluded that there will be Iranian responses to the American attacks. Let us not forget, however, that the world nuclear centers have confirmed that they did not observe an increase in radiation after the attack, which implies that there was no radiation release. This speaks to the extent of the reach of the strikes and the degree of neutralization of nuclear production. Let us not forget that Tehran spoke about considering the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and then about its high probability. After that, the parliament voted on a resolution to close the canal. This will not happen until the executive and the security system decide. So, the escalation still has its limits, and diplomacy still has a way to go.
- Will the parties return to the negotiating table, or will the opportunity be lost forever?
- Yes, the negotiations will resume. The perspective, simplified, is that the US will have a set of control tools over uranium enrichment processes, and Iran will be unblocked. Until then, there will be shocks.
- How will possible developments after the US intervention affect our region's South Caucasus? Are there reasons to worry?
- Azerbaijan had a moment to seize the opportunity. Turkey and Azerbaijan could have opened the Zangezur corridor. They did not take that step. This speaks not only of Iran's prohibition but also of the US and the EU. The situation will change dramatically if Israeli military bases located on the territory of Azerbaijan operate and attack Iran through that route. Azerbaijan will create that opportunity only with the permission of Ankara, which does not agree to involvement. Israel is unable to use the bases located in Azerbaijan, and this is not only due to the Iranian prohibition or threat.
Arman Galoyan spoke