Radar Armenia's interlocutor is political scientist David Stepanyan.
- What is Israel's goal in attacking Iran, and to what extent can this develop into a full-scale war?
- The goal of attacking Iran is obvious: to neutralize Iran as a strategic adversary and a hostile state. A full-scale military operation, in the sense that we understand it, is already underway.
- Can international players, Russia and China, restrain the escalation of the situation?
- I don't think there will be more actions than this. That is, there will be missile and air strikes on Iranian territory, and Iran will try to strike back at Israel. I don't think that Russia or China can restrain the escalation of the situation within this geopolitical equation because the problem has already escalated.
- What impact can the conflict between Iran and Israel have on the South Caucasus, in particular, on Armenia?
- We need to consider different scenarios. The most destructive scenario for Armenia is that a civil war breaks out inside Iran, following the example of Syria. There are other scenarios: if a civil war doesn't break out in Iran, everything will end with these strikes. In that case, there will be no direct impact on us.
- Against the backdrop of these events, is an escalation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict possible or a resumption of war?
- Nothing can be ruled out. Yes, that possibility exists. It all depends on how the Iran-Israel war will proceed. If everything ends with these targeted strikes, we can hope that there will be no direct impact, but if a civil war breaks out in Iran. An attempt is made to overthrow the ayatollahs' regime, and clashes begin, for example, in northern Azerbaijan, in Atrpatakan; in this case, anything is possible. A war could even break out between Azerbaijan and Iran, which, of course, will also have an impact on Armenia. Azerbaijan will try to use this to attack Armenia simultaneously, but this is a very apocalyptic scenario. Its probability isn't high.
- Can these events affect Armenia-Iran economic relations, particularly energy cooperation? Is a new wave of sanctions possible?
- They will definitely affect energy cooperation and other projects. Of course, a new wave of sanctions is possible, and it will be primarily from the US. This does not bode well for us, considering that today Iranian companies are doing a lot of work, primarily in implementing the "North-South" project in Syunik. Yes, this will have negative consequences for Armenian-Iranian economic cooperation.
Interviewed by Angela Poghosyan
