Radar Armenia's interlocutor is international affairs expert Shahan Gandaharian.
- On the one hand, we see a certain hardening of rhetoric in Russian-American relations, but negotiations are underway on the Ukrainian issue. How would you comment on what is happening, and what prospects do you see in these negotiations?
- The processes are not proceeding in a clear direction. There is a lot of trade going on, which has a direct impact on the negotiations. The agreements have subsections and derivatives, which may not be visible but significantly impact the process. The grand deal will not be smooth and quick. The general headline concerns the ratio of "minerals in exchange for support" and "territories in exchange for security."
- There were also some leaks in the international press about the negotiation documents. How balanced can a solution be expected? If it is signed, what will be the logic of the Russian-Ukrainian agreement?
The leaks are agreed upon. A leak regarding closed negotiations cannot be made without the permission of one of the parties. Only selective materials are leaked. A propaganda operation is being carried out under the guise of a leak. A Russian-Ukrainian agreement cannot materialize without a Russian-American agreement, which, contrary to the declarative section, does not exist yet.
- Do European states now want an agreement on this issue, or have they not yet? If not, why not?
- Russia has become a security threat to Europe. However, we should not perceive a single unit with united interests when we say Europe. There are also contradictions and states supporting different policies there. The general problem of Europe is not to be bypassed in the event of a US-Russian agreement. The US uses the European platform to conduct its trade with Russia. Finally, let us not forget that NATO forces were deployed in the regions bordering Russia through European territories. Europe was fully used in the policy of encircling Russia. This role will not change.
- Considering that Turkey is also involved in the negotiations and the next meeting will take place in Istanbul, how would you assess Turkey's role? In general, can we say that the country's role has increased somewhat recently?
- Washington is acting with Turkey on a "one step forward, two steps back" basis. It does not fully play the role of a mediator or guarantor. In the case of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it proposes a direct format with its mediation, and in the case of the Arab-Israeli conflict, it lets both the Saudi and Turkish horses run. Ankara does not manage to take a key role in the regions. There are always counterbalances; other states carry out the same mission.
- The US is also active in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Will a ceasefire be established in Gaza?
I think so. A ceasefire will begin, and negotiations will begin on Gaza's status. From afar, radical changes in the negotiating parties are visible: on the one hand, a demilitarized Gaza; on the other hand, a new prime minister and a new government in Tel Aviv.
- And in this context, the American-Iranian negotiations have stalled. Do you see any progress and developments here?
- By and large, geopolitical processes are underway, such as the isolation of Russia in exchange for lifting the blockade on Iran. Despite the stops, suspensions, and inevitable disagreements, phased negotiations continue and will continue. There are NATO troops in the border regions of Russia. Now, a policy of having military bases in the border regions of Iran is underway. It is no coincidence that the official Washington proposed involving Armenia and Azerbaijan in the "Abrahamic" alliance.
Arman Galoyan